Statistician Answers Stats Questions From Twitter | Tech Support | WIRED

This was a good overview of what’s possible with statistics: Statistician Answers Stats Questions From Twitter | Tech Support | WIRED.

But I’m pretty sure that at t=11:23 he gets it wrong. The probability that three people in a family have the same birthday isn’t 1 * 1/365 * 1/365. but rather it depends on the number of people in the family (starting, I guess, at some epoch). This is known as the Birthday paradox.

To be clear: they’re not asking what is the probability of three people being born on January 10. They asked what are the odds of three people from an unspecified family size being born on the same day (could be any day of the year).

Chess strategy

I enjoyed this one: I wasted years losing at chess, until I learned this.

Focus on solid moves. Don’t attack, wait for opponent to blunder. Try to avoid pushing pawns unless you have to. You can develop C, D, E pawns. Open by putting a pawn in the center. Castle early.

After the castle we’re into the mid-game. Then every move we have to look for:

  • Checks
  • Captures
  • Threats

If there are no checks/captures/threats we go for Optimization. So develop any pieces still on the back rank or the C, D, E pawns.

So it’s Checks, Captures, Threats, Optimizations.

Note: just because you have a check or capture doesn’t necessarily mean you have to play it.

Bottom line: avoid blundering and wait for your opponent to blunder.

Today at Humble Bundle

My friend asked me what I got at Humble Bundle today: